Independent Candidates Show 76% Improvement

Independent candidates in California’s recent primary election did far better as a whole than similar efforts in the previous three election cycles. Although a few of the candidates that icPurple endorsed for California’s first use of the new Top 2 Open Primary system were not successful in getting onto November’s general election ballot, our preliminary analysis shows some surprising and encouraging results. The vote share of the top independent and third party candidates against those from the major parties increased by over 76% compared to the averages in the 2006, 2008 and 2010 elections.

In order to get the comparison of voter preferences, we used the vote share in each of the general elections of 2006, 2008 and 2010.  These were compared to the vote share of candidates for the same offices in the 2012 open primary. Initially, this may seem to be an apples to oranges comparison. Typically, primary election voters tend to have a different profile, both more partisan and more activist.   They are also substantially outnumbered by general election voters. The path to this analysis requires making a few assumptions and comparisons that, while imperfect, do show what may be a significant shift in election behavior.

Since the Top-2 open primary is new, getting a comparison from the standpoint of voters is a challenge but, is also of great importance. To understand if independent candidates have a greater or lesser chance of success in this new environment, finding a way to compare 2012 with the past is critical.

This year’s open primary was the first time that voters actually chose from a combined slate of candidates from all potential parties and preferences.  In the past, the point where voters choose between Democrats, Republicans, independents and third parties has always only been in the general election.

The candidates included were those that were not listed as either Democrats or Republicans.  For 2012, party preferences were No Party preference (NP) as well as a variety of 3rd party candidates.  For the election cycles of 2006, 2008 and 2010, included party affiliations were either the various third party or independent candidates.  The order of each list was determined by their reported vote share in their respective elections. Use of relative vote share rather the number of votes helped to eliminate the variations caused by different district sizes and election turnouts. The data used for this analysis was sourced from the California Secretary of State’s website.

US House Races

Eight candidates for federal office achieved double digit vote share results in this past election, including three who made the Top 2 cut and are moving onto the general election.

In the 33rd Congressional district, Bill Bloomfield will running against Henry Waxman, in Congress representing much of this district since 1975. However, redistricting has changed the voter profile that Bloomfield and Waxman will be facing in November. While Democrats outnumber Republicans in the 33rd district by a substantial margin, NP or Decline to State registrations even the count. Despite having served the general region for 37 years, Waxman was unable to get 50% of the open primary vote and will enter a general election in which over half of the primary voters voted for someone else.

*Received an endorsement and support from icPurple.

California State Assembly Races

Five elections in the primary produced double digit results for independent candidates, another big improvement compared to previous elections.

The standout in this field is Chad Walsh* from the Silicon Valley area. Up against an incumbent, albeit in a redrawn legislative district, the first-time candidate earned 46.5% of the vote and will face Assemblyman Paul Fong as a very strong challenger.

*Received an endorsement and support from icPurple.

California State Senate Races

The small number of candidates not affiliated with either the Democratic or Republican parties makes comparisons most difficult here. The average of the Webster and Ambrozewicz  vote shares yield an average greater than what has been seen in the last three election cycles. The low number of number of independent candidacies for this office makes a different point, highlighting the strength of the political parties.