Independent candidates in California’s recent primary election did far better as a whole than similar efforts in the previous three election cycles. Although a few of the candidates that icPurple endorsed for California’s first use of the new Top 2 Open Primary system were not successful in getting onto November’s general election ballot, our preliminary analysis shows some surprising and encouraging results. The vote share of the top independent and third party candidates against those from the major parties increased by over 76% compared to the averages in the 2006, 2008 and 2010 elections.

In order to get the comparison of voter preferences, we used the vote share in each of the general elections of 2006, 2008 and 2010.  These were compared to the vote share of candidates for the same offices in the 2012 open primary. Initially, this may seem to be an apples to oranges comparison. Typically, primary election voters tend to have a different profile, both more partisan and more activist.   They are also substantially outnumbered by general election voters. The path to this analysis requires making a few assumptions and comparisons that, while imperfect, do show what may be a significant shift in election behavior.

Since the Top-2 open primary is new, getting a comparison from the standpoint of voters is a challenge but, is also of great importance. To understand if independent candidates have a greater or lesser chance of success in this new environment, finding a way to compare 2012 with the past is critical.

This year’s open primary was the first time that voters actually chose from a combined slate of candidates from all potential parties and preferences.  In the past, the point where voters choose between Democrats, Republicans, independents and third parties has always only been in the general election.

The candidates included were those that were not listed as either Democrats or Republicans.  For 2012, party preferences were No Party preference (NP) as well as a variety of 3rd party candidates.  For the election cycles of 2006, 2008 and 2010, included party affiliations were either the various third party or independent candidates.  The order of each list was determined by their reported vote share in their respective elections. Use of relative vote share rather the number of votes helped to eliminate the variations caused by different district sizes and election turnouts. The data used for this analysis was sourced from the California Secretary of State’s website.

US House Races

Eight candidates for federal office achieved double digit vote share results in this past election, including three who made the Top 2 cut and are moving onto the general election.

In the 33rd Congressional district, Bill Bloomfield will running against Henry Waxman, in Congress representing much of this district since 1975. However, redistricting has changed the voter profile that Bloomfield and Waxman will be facing in November. While Democrats outnumber Republicans in the 33rd district by a substantial margin, NP or Decline to State registrations even the count. Despite having served the general region for 37 years, Waxman was unable to get 50% of the open primary vote and will enter a general election in which over half of the primary voters voted for someone else.

*Received an endorsement and support from icPurple.

California State Assembly Races

Five elections in the primary produced double digit results for independent candidates, another big improvement compared to previous elections.

The standout in this field is Chad Walsh* from the Silicon Valley area. Up against an incumbent, albeit in a redrawn legislative district, the first-time candidate earned 46.5% of the vote and will face Assemblyman Paul Fong as a very strong challenger.

*Received an endorsement and support from icPurple.

California State Senate Races

The small number of candidates not affiliated with either the Democratic or Republican parties makes comparisons most difficult here. The average of the Webster and Ambrozewicz  vote shares yield an average greater than what has been seen in the last three election cycles. The low number of number of independent candidacies for this office makes a different point, highlighting the strength of the political parties.

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Every issue, whether it be social, fiscal or otherwise has a spectrum of possible responses. Invariably there will be some people whose beliefs line up with the more extreme responses, but most Americans will fall somewhere in the middle. On the American political spectrum most of us hold moderate, common sense views that reflect a need for solid, compromising policy and an honest concern for the average American.

• Social Issues: The parties take rigid and extreme positions; asserting that abortion should always or never be legal. One says that that unions are the ultimate problem and the other that they completely necessary. And their stances on same-sex marriage are equally divisive; its either immoral or a fundamental human right.

• Fiscal Matters: When it comes to economics the parties still take hardliner positions; one extreme wants to pay no taxes and the other wants to raise taxes on the most wealthy. One party advocates for stricter government while the other wants no regulation.

• International Relations: Again, we see the parties’ extreme and unmoving positions. One party advocates war as a solution to conflict and the other, diplomacy. One wants to allow immigrants to become citizens and the other wants mass deportation. The list goes on; they disagree on foreign aid, environmental agreements and every other possible decision.

 Independents do not buy these dogmatic approaches.  We are better equipped to consider all the components involved in these dilemmas and we see common sense in creating a rule that accounts for complexities and allows for necessary exceptions.

 Aren’t you fed up with the parties’ extreme positions and failure to compromise and get things done?

We are icPurple. We are the moderate middle: Independent thinkers and leaders ready for policy solutions. Are you in?

 Sign the Declaration

A vote for an Independent candidate is no longer mere symbolism.  icPurple.org congratulates California’s courageous Independent candidates Linda Parks, Chad Condit, Chad Walsh, and Nathan Fletcher.  Through each of their campaigns, these leaders proved one common reality:  Independent, non-party candidates are now legitimate competitors in American politics.  The ‘centrist majority’ has been awakened, and the match has been struck.

Each race from California’s Tuesday, June 5th primary election tells this story in a different way:

• In the case of Chad Walsh for California Assembly, Walsh will advance to the November general election by pulling a truly remarkable showing of 45% of votes against his entrenched party opponent: a long-time politician with enormous name ID.
• In San Diego, with little more than two months to compete as an Independent, Nathan Fletcher rocketed from the relative unknown to achieving 24% of the vote in the three-way race and assembled a vast coalition of pragmatic, solutions-oriented voters and community leaders.  Given the enormity of investment by the parties dedicated to negative messages tearing Fletcher down, his near-win is all the more amazing.
• Both Chad Condit and Linda Parks demonstrated respectable showings in their House races with Parks taking 18% of the vote among six candidates despite viscous and relentless party attacks, and Condit achieving 15% of the vote among five candidates in one of the most politically targeted races in the country.

This has very rarely, if ever, been seen before.  In the face of vehement attacks from both parties, it is truly remarkable that these Independent leaders developed ample resources and popularity and achieved double–digit, near–wins while demonstrating viable bases of support.  This election moves us a step closer to ending our paralysis at the hands of partisan politics.  Independent leaders like these Californians and Angus King of Maine are running for office in pursuit of thoughtful solutions to today’s serious problems, sending a clear signal to Washington, DC and State Houses that ‘enough is enough’ with politics for politics sake.

The recent Pew Research Center study points out that party identification is declining, while Independents are on a dramatic incline, and that 43% of Independents identify as squarely moderate.  The future is bright for the Independent movement.  But the work has just begun, and we have a long road ahead.

In voting for Independent leaders, the ‘centrist majority’ is sending a clear message that politicians at the local, state, and national level need to pull out of partisan gridlock and get back into the business of solutions.  We don’t need combative politics, we need constructive politics.  The important work of governing our country should be done with dignity, with pragmatism, with diverse coalitions, with consideration for compromise, with authenticity.  This message is important to Independents at large, and these values, along with the needs of their district, are Independent leaders’ chief priority, not partisan politics or dogmatic purist affiliations.

Other recent studies have shown that approximately 40% of voters cannot align themselves entirely with either of our political parties.  And this is why the election of Independent leaders is critical – to express the voice of the 40% ‘centrist majority,’ and to bring solutions-oriented leadership and legitimate compromise back into our political system.  In a country that celebrates innovation and diversity in all we do, our rigid commitment to stale, unforgiving party lines is baffling.  The very politicians who walk the halls of Congress preaching the need for new ideas for a new economy actually, and unimaginatively, vote the party line almost 100% of the time.  This has to change, and this election is proof that it can.

The movement to the middle has just begun.  A vote for an Independent leader in November is no longer just a signal.  It is now a viable opportunity for real political change in our country, and for a return to civil discourse.
TED WAITT
Founder, icPurple.org
Co-Founder, Gateway, Inc.